Iowa Caucus: The early analysis

So far, 88& of precincts have reported, but I think the situation is clear enough for me to come up with my first analysis of the results.

No matter whether Rick Santorum technically finishes first or whether Mitt Romney does, neither candidate can really call it a victory. They've been statistically tied most of the way.

Ron Paul finishing third, just 4% back of the two front runners is very respectable. This could be the platform that Ron Paul has been looking for for years, and it is definitely his best chance of getting to the White House. It's probably also his last chance, as he is 66 now.

Newt Gingrich being placed 4th may not be what he was hoping for, but I'm not sure he'll think the result bad enough to force him to drop out.

Rick Perry coming in 5th, with about 10%. Normally that might be considered bad enough to force a candidate to drop out. But Rick Perry has fundraised a lot of money. Over $15million in fact. His ability to fundraise might just keep him in this.

For the other two in the race, their future seems surprisingly clear. Michele Bachmann in 6th with just 5%, seems destined to drop out. However, she is not known for being able to read the political tea-leaves very well. She may well try to stay in the race, to try and secure a Vice-Presidential nod from one of the other candidates, maybe trying to position herself as a Sarah Palin-esque type candidate, but better, with more experience.

For John Huntsman, in last place with a mere 1%, it is most definitely over. I imagine he will drop out of the race in the next 24-48 hours.

I imagine the next 24 hours will clear up the picture significantly, so I'll be coming back to this story again.