Strictly Politics: Reckless move sees backlash.

Yesterday, Mark Reckless was a Conservative MP for the constituency of Rochester & Strood.  Today, he’s the probable UKIP candidate for the seat, in a by-election that could be happening in November.

Just like his name, his move to join UKIP and resign as a Conservative MP, was Reckless.  There’s no guarantee that he will get re-elected.  In fact, based upon what happened earlier today in Rochester, Mark Reckless, might have committed a reckless move of political suicide, by joining UKIP.

Channel 4 News political correspondent Michael Crick, has written about what was supposed to be the former MP’s triumphant return to Rochester with Nigel Farage, and the fact that it turned into a roasting for Reckless, at the hands of a local Conservative constituency organisation that had revenge and vengeance on their minds.

Most of what Reckless heard were Conservative activists who were unsurprisingly disgusted at what he’d done, and gave him a piece of their minds, and there were a lot of those.  Mark Reckless, could well have defected himself out of a job, that he could have held onto for about 8 or 9 more months.

Michael also raises a good point about Labour here.  Should they run a campaign here or let Tories and UKIP fight it out between themselves?  To me, the answer is obvious.  Yes, they should run a campaign in Rochester & Strood and run it hard.  After all, until 2010, it had been a Labour seat.  Reckless may well pull a group of voters to UKIP with him, and hopefully, it will split the right wing vote enough for Labour, or some other party if Labour don’t feel up to it, to go in and potentially win the vote. The Green Party would be a good party to get behind right now, if they decide to submit a candidate.

There have been comparisons made with the final days of John Major’s government in the mid 1990s.  In some ways, this is worse, as the Referendum Party was at the time, an untried, untested movement in electoral terms.  UKIP are tried and tested, and have won some seats, mainly at the council level, but also in the European Parliament.  Some people are expecting UKIP to win at least a seat at the UK General Election next year.  I expect that UKIP won’t win a seat, but their very presence will probably mean the Conservatives will lose seats, mostly to Labour.

Overall, this weekend may have proved that political defections are fraught with danger and if you make a Reckless move, you may just end up paying the penalty.  You have to wonder who was the more reckless, Mark Reckless or Nigel Farage?

Fair Or Foul: A new type of post here on Viewpoint.

We’re making some changes to our blog, and introducing different styles of posts here at Viewpoint.  One of these, is the one I’m going to introduce to you right here, it’s called Fair Or Foul, and it goes like this.

I will post about some of the stories that have caught my attention, either the story, a statement from a company, or a quote from a person, or something similar, and I will rate them on the following scale.

FAIR – The story, quote or statement is fair or seems to be fair.

FOUL – The story, quote or statement is not fair, but it’s not a serious foul, there’s nothing egregious about it.

FOUL, Yellow Card – The story, quote or statement is not fair, and is serious enough to earn a Yellow Card warning for unfairness.

FOUL, Red Card – The story, quote or statement is so unfair, egregiously so, that it would warrant a ‘sending off’.

After each rating, I will explain what about the story, quote or statement has persuaded me to give them that rating.

So, having explained all that, let me give you a few examples so you get how the ‘game’ is played.

BBC News: Young people out of work for more than six months face losing access to jobseeker's allowance (JSA) if the Conservatives win the next election.  Fair or Foul?

FOUL, Red Card.

No two ways about it, this is a red card offence.  The Conservatives have been trying to force people to work for their dole money for years now, and every time they come out with this idea, it gets so much grief, and rightfully so, that they have to hide it away again until they can find another way to dress it up and try to make it look respectable.

There’s nothing respectable about underpaying for people doing work, especially "community projects", which is Tory code, for menial jobs that they wouldn’t be prepared to do themselves.  Good leaders, lead by example, not by forcing people to work for their benefits, and effectively working to criminalise unemployment.  This all stems from having the basic attitude of “those who can’t find work are basically workshy and don’t want to work”.  That isn’t necessarily the case at all, but because of programmes like Benefits Street, where you encountered people who went around with the attitude of “Oh, the world owes me a living.”, you’ve ended up with the public having a very distorted view of what it means to be unemployed.  And the Tories are trying to take advantage of that, to criminalise the unemployed.  That will not win you votes, especially from those who ARE unemployed, or who have recently been unemployed, whether they have found a job, or gone the self employed route.

The Tories should just drop this whole idea of criminalising the unemployed, and instead try to find ways to enable easier startup of small businesses, and cut the massive amounts of red tape out of small business startup and self-employment.  It will be more beneficial, than criminalising people because they haven’t got a job.

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Emma Watson: “It is time that we all see gender as a spectrum instead of two sets of opposing ideals. We should stop defining each other by what we are not and start defining ourselves by who we are.”  Fair or Foul?

FAIR

Emma Watson on Saturday launched a campaign called HeForShe at the United Nations in New York, which aims to promote gender equality to men, and change the perspective of feminism from being seen as one about hating men, to one about gender equality.

I can honestly say that I have always thought that feminism was about equality, not about man-hating, which is something completely different, despite what misogynists like Rush Limbaugh think and say on the air.  Gender equality is something we should all get behind.  I have made my commitment, I urge all men to do the same, go to the website, and take a stand for gender equality.

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Micheal Murphy TD: “What exactly is he apologising for?  Is the Taoiseach now admitting that he instructed Minister Heather Humphreys to appoint Mr McNulty in support of his Seanad candidacy?… …This goes to the heart of the scandal and requires a full statement in Dáil Éireann from the Taoiseach outlining the entire sequence of events from the beginning to the end of this shabby affair."  Fair or Foul?

FOUL

This is just another example of politics as usual that you can find almost anywhere around the world.  In this case, the contretemps is over the appointment of prospective Fine Gael senator to the board of the Irish Museum of Modern Art.  The thought is that the appointment was done to help his Senatorial candidacy.  The accusation is basically cronyism.  But we have seen this accusation thrown about so many times, in many different countries, and really, what would a statement in Dail Eireann really do, other than just give Michael Murphy a chance to try to humiliate the Taoiseach, and score more political points, which are ultimately, meaningless? 

I’ve said this many times, but politics should be about problem solving, not point scoring.  It should be about coming together in the centre, not pulling people to the extremities.  Instead of becoming two tribes, we should be coming together as human beings.  I’m often reminded of the Frankie Goes To Hollywood song, Two Tribes, from 1984, the video of which featured impersonators of US President Ronald Reagan, and Soviet premier Konstantin Chernenko brawling and wrestling each other in front of a rabid crowd.  But one lyric from that song keep coming back to me in these situations.

“When two tribes go to war, a point is all that you can score.”

And political points, are worthless and meaningless.

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The Local: The Spanish government has said Catalonia would not be allowed to hold an independence referendum, shortly after the region's leader set a November 9 date for the vote.  Fair or Foul?

FOUL, Yellow Card.

Apparently, the Spanish Government has forgotten what kind of country it is governing.  It is a country made up of 19 autonomous regions, two of those are cities.  Each autonomous region has their own parliament, can make their own laws, and each is a democracy of its own. 

Catalonia is one of a few autonomous regions that has significantly more powers than most other regions, amongst those powers, is for the regional president to dissolve parliament and call elections, and if Catalonia is blocked from holding a referendum on independence, it could well be that Catalonia turns it into an election issue, and make independence the centrepiece of an election campaign, and for the Spanish national government, that would be a much bigger headache, than a mere referendum.

The Spanish government, look like they’re afraid that they are going to lose, and that might be true, but instead of looking like scaredy-cats, and running to the Spanish Constitutional Court to get the vote ruled unconstitutional, which is what they’ll try and do, they should actually let the vote happen, and let things take their course, and if something goes wrong, be ready to welcome them back into the Spanish fold with open arms.  This is starting to look like an enforced empire, rather than a collective of people that want to work together.  And by extension, it is also making the European Union look like an attempt at empire building, rather than the Community that it was when the UK joined in 1973.   

In saying that “…no-one is above the national will of all Spaniards…”, you look like enforcers of something that maybe, the people of Catalonia don’t want anymore, and maybe, other regions of Spain, might not like it either, and might not want to be a part of it.  If you cannot respect the will of the Catalonian people, why should other regions want to be part of Spain either?  You do yourself no favours by starting to appear dictatorial, rather than democratic.

Hence, the yellow card, as a warning that trying to dictate what can and can’t be done, by a democratic, devolved region of your own country, is likely to lead to the breakup, not just of Spain, but potentially of other countries too, and possibly by extension, the breakup of the European Union, as people decide they don’t want to be a part of any elected government, that decides it can become dictatorial when it likes.

The Resignation of Dr Liam Fox

Sky News, and BBC News Channel are reporting the resignation of the Defence Secretary Dr Liam Fox.

It’s about time he resigned!

He had previously acknowledged he had allowed the situation where people thought that his friend Adam Werritty was an advisor of his, when in fact he wasn’t even part of the government or the Conservative party.

He should have resigned when he made that statement.

But he didn’t.

He tried to hang on, he tried to defuse the situation, which we ALL knew was a time bomb just waiting to go off.

David Cameron could have shown some leadership, and basically told Dr Fox to go on Monday, when the preliminary findings where released.

But he didn’t.

He tried to keep his friend in government, despite it being clear that he had broken the ministerial code.

This government has shown contempt for  following process and has avoided trying to do the right thing.

Nick Clegg, now should show some leadership.

In the face of this scandal, and the revealations about Oliver Letwin disposing of government documents and correspondence with constituents in a public bin in a park, he needs to turn around and say to David Cameron, this…

“You and your party have shown a lack of respect for the processes of government.  As such, either you need to resign as Prime Minister, or the Liberal Democrats will walk out of this coalition and force a general election.”

This is a government that has brought itself into disrepute in record time.  It needs to be kicked out of office.

Viewpoint - The UK Spending Review, BBC & S4C.

NaVloPoMo 2009 – Day 4: US election insight.

Canadian phony Election has begun!

Oh boy!  Here we go!

Literally minutes after Michael Ignatieff, leader of Canada’s Liberal Party, announced that he would no longer support the Conservative minority government on Stephen Harper, Stephen Harper comes out and says that the decision goes against Canada’s interests in this economic downturn.

The phony election campaign has begun, and the government isn’t even out of power yet.  Whilst political instability is never a good thing, you could never call a minority government stable, given the fact it could get voted out at any time.

The fact is Harper’s Conservative government has been behind the curve on economic recovery from day 1 of this global recession, whilst other countries including the US, UK, France and Germany have been ahead of the curve.

Harper has been given too many chances to just limp on.  I’m glad that some decisive action will be taken.  Decisiveness is just what Canada needs right now, in order to catch up with other countries.  But whether that will be best served by Michael Ignatieff, Jack Layton, or a different prime minister is another question altogether.

Viewpoint Election Special – What a difference a day makes.

They say a week is a long time in politics.  The past 24 hours for Gordon Brown and Labour have been a marathon at 100mph!  Ian Beaumont reviews the day's events.

Viewpoint Election Special – The South West turns blue!

It's been a busy day.  The South West is turning blue, the cabinet is being reshuffled, and the Independent and minor party surge hasn't happened.  Ian Beaumont roundups developments.

Viewpoint Election Special – Overnight Results & Reshuffle begins.

The first results from the UK Local Elections came in overnight, and new developments in the Government crisis after last night's resignation.  Ian Beaumont roundups the overnight developments.

Viewpoint Election Special – Polls close and Purnell Resigns!

The news came out just as the polls closed at 10pm.  In this first Viewpoint Election Special, Ian Beaumont takes a look at the breaking news, and just what could happen in the local elections.

Viewpoint – from City Media Productions - 1g

Viewpoint Extra – from City Media Productions - 1d

Ivan Cameron 2002-2009

It's not that often that I talk about UK politics, usually because US politics is more fun, and often easier to take the mickey out of.  But this post is not about mickey-taking, it's about a young life, the oldest son of the Leader of the Opposition, who died overnight aged just 6.

Ivan was not an ordinary boy in the normal sense.  He had Cerebral Palsy, and Ohtahara Syndrome, a particularly severe and nasty form of Epilepsy.  Most sufferers usually die before they are 2 years old.  Some might say Ivan was lucky to live so long.  I say, he was lucky to have such dedicated parents as David and Samantha Cameron.

I have Epilepsy myself.  I used to be a sufferer of Grand Mal Epilepsy, which is fairly serious, but thankfully, not a patch on Ohtahara Syndrome.  These days, I suffer only with Petite Mal, which even compared to Grand Mal, is nowhere near as bad.  I have massive sympathies for David and Samantha, coping with an epileptic in the family is something my own parents managed ably, but add cerebral palsy to the mix, and I think David Cameron has shown just what a good parent he truly is.

Whilst I might not agree with his party's policies, I send my deepest sympathies and condolences to David and Samantha Cameron, and their close relatives and friends. 

Rest in peace, young Ivan.

Local Elections 2008: England & Wales Local Councils - Results Review

With all 159 councils having declared in the Local Council Elections, it's time to review the results and analyse them.

It's not really surprising what the headlines are. Conservatives gaining 12 councils and 256 councillors, Labour losing 9 councils and 331 councillors. The media is refering to the losses for Labour as huge. Maybe in pure terms of numbers, losing over 300 councillors sounds like a lot, but in analytical terms, it's not nearly such a massive loss.

Remember, this is not 1 election to a governing body, but 159 elections to 159 different governing bodies, in these cases, local councils. When you do the maths, you realise that one average, Labour has only lost the equivalent of just under 2.1 councillors per council. Certainly not anywhere near as impressive sounding is it?

The Conservatives are trying to claim a major success. Yet, there are enough negatves out there for me to suggest that their 'major success' is somwhat tempered. Look through all 159 results and you see some really striking ones.

In Burnley, the council had been pretty much split between LibDems and Labour with Conservatives and BNP way back. However, the gainers from Labour's misfortune this time was not the Conservatives, but the Liberal Democrats who took control of the council with 23 seats to Labour's 12. Neither the Cobservatives (6) nor the BNP (4) gained out of Labour's misfortunes. For David Cameron, the failure make any kind of move in Burnley must be seen as somewhat of a failure.

In Colchester, which had been a Conservative council, albeit only briefly for less than a year, the Conservatives lost seats and lost control of the council. The Conservatives lost 5 seats there, with Labour actually picking up 4 seats, and the LibDems the remaining seat.

Coventry also went against the grain, with just 1 seat out of the 18 seats up for election changing hands, but it went from Conservative to Labour and with it, the Conservatives lost control of the council.

In St Albans, the Liberal Democrats took control of the council, despite the Conservatives having the better performance and gaining 3 seats, compared to the LibDems gaining only 1. But that 1 seat was sufficient to give the LibDems control and rather took the shine off what looked a good performance.

In Oxford, the Conservatives only had two seats on the council before the election. By the end of the night, they had none at all, wiped out. In Sheffield too, the 1 Conservative councillor there lost his seat, and the party is not represented on the council at all.

Add to this councils like Adur, Barrow in Furness, Brentwood, Burnley, Castle Point, Cheltenham, Daventry, Fareham, Kingston-upon-Hull, Manchester, Mole Valley, Rochdale, Runnymede, South Tyneside, St Helens, Stoke-On-Trent, Stroud, Swansea, Swindon, Thurrock, Wallsall, Watford, Waveney, Winchester, Woking and Worcester where the Conservatives failed to gain any seats at all, and it does somewhat take more than an edge of the Conservatives "major success".

There are also councils like Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Gateshead, Gwynedd, Knowsley, Liverpool, Merthyr Tydfil, Neath Port Talbot, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Oxford and Sheffield where the Conservatives haven't even got a single seat on the council, and councils such as Bridgend, Broxbourne, Colchester, Coventry, Derby, Eastleigh, Gosport, Huntingdonshire, Ipswich, Leeds, Oxford, Purbeck, Reigate & Banstead, Sefton, Sheffield, Slough, South Lakeland, Southend-on-Sea and Stratford-On-Avon where the Conservatives suffered losses rather than gains.

Now how major does their success look? It looks rather patchy to me.

When Conservatives Attack (your patriotism)!!!

Rockridge Nation has an interesting post, describing what you should say in response when Conservatives/Republicans question your patriotism.

Most useful post, added to my anti-political attack strategy!

Super Thursday: Scottish Parliamentary Election Roundup.

Prior to this Election, Labour was the largest party in the Scottish Parliament with 50 seats. They were the major party in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

Today, the Scottish Nationalist Party is the largest party with 47 seats, compared to Labour on 46, Conservatives on 17, Liberal Democrats on 16, Green Party on 2 and 1 Independent.

In terms of the individual constituencies, Labour won the most constituencies with 37, SNP got 21, Liberal Democrats got 11 and the Conservatives got 4. It was in the regional lists vote that the SNP and Conservatives did best. The SNP won 26 of those regionally based seats, Conservatives have 13, Labour have 9, Liberal Democrats 5, Greens 2 and 1 Independent.

Turnout across Scotland was high at 51.8%, which translates to just over 2 million votes cast.

The big story of the night will unquestionably be the high number of spoilt ballots cast in this election. It was noted on the night, by myself and the BBC's Nick Robinson that this was an unusual trend, with in one constituency, spoilt ballots making up 7.2% of the votes cast.

I note that the Electoral Commission, who oversee all elections here in the UK, have said that they will begin an investigation with immediate effect. I am glad to hear that. I really don't want this to become as infamous as the "Florida Hanging Chads" incident during the 2000 US presidential election. SNP leader Alex Salmond has claimed that 100,000 votes were spoilt in this election, and we have no immediate way of verifying his figures.

However, we do know that in one constituency, Airdrie and Shotts, the winning candidates majority was less than the number of spoilt ballots. In Glasgow Shettleton, there were over 2,000 spoilt ballots. These are very unusual figures that in years of covering elections, I have never seen this level of spoilt ballots.

However, the story from here on in now will be about who will form the next Scottish government. The expectation is that it will be a combination of SNP and Lib Dems with the Green and the 1 single Independent. However, that might not be the case. The Conservatives could act as kingmakers here. Labour could still manage to become the next government,and indeed, it could be possible for Labour and SNP to team up in a kind of national unity government.

What will happen, is unclear right now, but I will be following this story with much interest over the next few weeks.

Bias In The Media - Don't conservatives get it?

I have noticed something in my observations of the various blogs and commentators on the internet, and that is that there is no single "enemy" organisation for conservatives. Bill O'Reilly, Michelle Malkin, Natalie Solent and others regularly target almost all other mainstream media outlets. The BBC, The CBC, The ABC in Australia, US network newscasts, Al-Jazeera and Air America Radio are among the favourites, as are The New York Times and The Washington Post, but nearly every news organisation cops it from conservatives, except one.

Fox News Channel is about the only major news provider than conservatives do not attack for reasons of bias. Why? Because Fox News is as biased as they are.

They accuse everybody else of being biased, and yet cannot see their own bias. Perhaps they should challenge their own opinions every once in a while, like I do on a daily basis. Maybe they'd realise that it's just slightly possible that the majority may be right and they may be wrong.