Scotland Votes 2014: Result and Aftermath

Well, by 5am this morning, we knew that Scotland had voted no to independence, and there was a huge sigh of relief from the No camp, and a huge groan of disappointment from the Yes camp. 

The final result after all 32 council areas had declared was…

On a personal note, I had been of mixed emotions throughout this referendum campaign.  Part of me was sad at the thought of breaking up the UK, especially as it was starting to feel more like a bitter divorce than an amicable separation, but part of me was excited at the prospect of Scotland becoming an independent country and all the associated things that would change with it, such as the changes to the media in Scotland.  Upon seeing that the result was going to be no, I was still of mixed emotions.  Relief was there, but there was a lot more disappointment.  I would have loved to see how Scotland would have developed as an independent nation.

But putting my disappointment aside, we now have a situation where we know there is a large movement for change, 45% of those who voted prove that, and that kind of support for change can’t be denied or ignored.  So maybe we’ll start to see a move towards a more federal UK.  Maybe we’ll see Yorkshire, Cornwall, Wessex and other areas become autonomous regions within the UK as a whole. 

But one thing we won’t see will be Alex Salmond as Scottish First Minister for much longer.  He decided that today’s result was the end for him, as the First Minister of a devolved Scotland, and as leader of the SNP, the Scottish Nationalist Party.  He will stand down in November, when a new leader of the SNP is elected, and therefore, a new Scottish First Minister.  Nicola Sturgeon, current Deputy First Minister, is the obvious favourite.

One thing this referendum has undoubtedly done, is to release the devolution genie from the bottle for parts of England, as well as reinvigiorate it for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.  It will not be business as usual, ever again.  The idea of a parliament for England has been put forward, and some have linked the idea to House of Lords reform.  Now, to be honest, any one of these issues on their own is enough to stall a government or cause ructions in the Palace of Westminster.  But to try to put all this together, before the next election, sounds like a bridge too far.  It sounds like a rushed job, rather than what is needed, which is time to go through the options and decide what works best. 

Overall, yes, this is the beginning of big change within the UK, but will it be the right change that is needed, or a rushed change that could do more damage than good?  Only time will tell.

Scotland Votes 2014: First Result…

Well, we have our first result in.  Clackmannanshire voted No, by 19,036 to 16,350 for Yes.  Now, most political analysts for this referendum had expected Clackmannanshire to vote Yes, after all, it had voted SNP in the European Elections earlier this year, and had a large percentage of lower class voters, the DE demographics, who were expected to vote Yes.  However, this seems to have not been the case at all.  It may well be No’s night, but it could also mean that whatever metrics we might have expected to have applied, may in fact be totally wrong, and we’ll get a different result.  We’ll see what happens with the other results.

Scotland Votes 2014: Early Indications…

Well the polls in Scotland closed at 2200 UK time, and so far, none of the 32 councils have declared, but we are expecting the smaller counties with fewer votes to declare first.

We haven’t had an exit poll, but You Gov did an “on the day” poll, telephoning people who had voted, rather than catching them after they leave the polling station, and that poll suggests 54% have voted No, and 46% have voted Yes.  The head honcho of You Gov, Peter Kellner, gives his poll a 99% certainty, though to be honest, nothing like this has ever been done before, and certainly the usual rules of polling are less reliable here than in elections, so to give this much more credence right now than to call it an interesting survey.  We will see overnight, if that survey has any more credence than that.

Otherwise, there really is little to report.  First results are expected sometime between Midnight and 2am, with the last council declaring around 6am.  Even as a long time observer of global politics, this is one of those situations and issues where I don’t have even an inkling on how this will go.  From the historical perspective, more countries have voted for independence since 1945 than against it, but history is not a guide to the future. 

Hopefully once we get the first results, we’ll start to get an idea just how the vote is going.  But we are still waiting for those first results.

The Idiot Brigade Awards: Monday 8th September 2014

Okay, time to give out the most coveted prizes in blogging world (not), today’s medals in the Idiot Brigade Awards.

The Bronze medal goes to Conservative MP John Redwood, for suggesting that the Scots should be banned from voting in the 2015 General Election if they vote for Independence.  John, you do realise that such an idea is pretty guaranteed to make the Scots vote for Independence, just to spite you?

The Silver medal goes to Patriarch Filaret, the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, who has accused Russian President Vladimir Putin as being possessed by Satan.  You know, this is not going to help de-escalate the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, but worse than that, you actually compared him to the wrong person.  If anything, Vladimir Putin is looking more and more like George W Bush did during his second term, where all he had was his own certainty, his own beliefs, his own omniscience, and little to no connection with the real world at all. That is about all Putin has left at the moment, is his own certainty, his own omniscience, his own superiority complex, if you will.

But the Fools Gold Award winners today, are Ray Rice, The Baltimore Ravens of the National Football League, The National Football League themselves and the Commissioner of the NFL, Roger Goodell.  You may recall that Ray Rice was suspended by the NFL Commissioner for two games, after TMZ released a surveillance video tape showing Ray Race dragging his then fiancé Janay Palmer out of an elevator.  Since then, Roger Goodell and the NFL have taken a public relations pummelling over the lenient punishment.  That led to a change in policy, that was not backdated, that all domestic violence offenders would be suspended for 6 games on a first offence, and banned indefinitely on a second offence.

Today, TMZ released the ‘other video’ that the police had had all along, which showed what happened inside the elevator.  I’m not going to link to it directly, or embed it on the page, as I consider it too graphic and too violent.  But suffice to say, his actions in that elevator made the two game suspension look far worse than farcical.  It made it look utterly shameful and a complete disgrace.

Almost instantly, the Baltimore Ravens released Ray Rice, followed in equally quick succession by the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, announcing that Ray Rice was being suspended from the NFL indefinitely, and all based upon this release of the ‘new’ video, a video that both the NFL and the Baltimore Ravens deny having previously seen, but knowing how the NFL has a great working relationship with the Police, I find that whole scenario incredibly unlikely.

I have little doubt in my own mind, that they were just trying to ride it out, wait until the heat died down, and then everything would be a-ok, and they could quietly bury it.  Today, those thoughts were blown out of the water, and the speed of both organisations reactions unfortunately give away exactly what they knew.  They had to have seen the video, knew what it contained, and yet still, they tried to diminish it, by only suspending Ray Rice for 2 games.  Today’s video demonstrated that you cared as much about domestic violence, as much as you had previously cared about concussions, prior to last year’s settlement, which was not a lot.

Baltimore Ravens, if you had taken some responsibility in the first place and suspended Rice before the NFL had taken its original decision, the one that now looks incredibly ridiculous, you would have looked strong, and in command, instead of looking weak, feeble and out of touch, as you do now.

Roger Goodell, you surely don’t expect me to believe that you hadn’t seen the second videotape until now.  I find that very hard to believe.  Again, rather like the Baltimore Ravens themselves, you look weak, feeble, indecisive and out of touch with the people who matter most to you and your organisation, your fans, especially the large contingent of female fans that the NFL attracts. 

Ray Rice, the Baltimore Ravens, the NFL and Commissioner Roger Goodell.  Not only our Fools Gold Award winner today, but unequivocally, today’s Worst Persons In The World.

Making Sense on Scottish Independence: The questions over what happens next…

I have noticed that a lot of people on social media have a lot of misconception about the whole Scottish Independence issue, especially in the area of what happens afterwards if the vote is in favour of independence.

Let’s start making some sense.  Nothing is going to happen immediately after the result is known.  Independence is a process that will only begin, once the result is known.  During that process, there will be a general election, which will mean that Scottish MPs will continue to sit in the House of Commons until Independence actually happens.  Oh and by the way, there is also a Scottish Parliamentary Election due in 2015, as well as elections to the Assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland. 

There are lots of issues to actually sort out, such as currency, cross border trade, EU membership, UN membership, separation of the public services that are still controlled from Westminster and many others.  One of my favourite things to watch is what will actually happen to the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 in Scotland if they actually vote for independence.  Independence is a process and a negotiation that will take a couple of years to actually sort out.  And there could be two changes of government, one of each side of the negotiation, during the process. 

So we’re looking at a process that will take at least two years to actually sort out, and implement.  So independence for Scotland wouldn’t actually happen until late 2016 at the earliest, and probably not until 2017 if we’re being realistic.

But even if the vote result is not for independence, there will be some very interesting moves of powers from Westminster to Scotland, that much we know is going to happen, but what those exact powers will be, will only be known if the vote goes against independence.

Make no mistake, the story does not end with the result coming out next month.  In fact, we’ll just be getting to the good stuff, either way.