Alabama and Mississippi Primaries tonight.

So we have two primaries tonight in Alabama and Mississippi. And the number of delegates that are available to the candidates are falling.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are behind in the delegate race, as is Ron Paul, but we know that Ron Paul is not interested in getting the nomination, but in taking the Republican party away from social conservatism, which moderates and independents do not support.

Mitt Romney needs another 713 delegates out of the remaining 1491. That's about 48%. Rick Santorum needs 932 delegates, or 62.5% of the remaining delegates. Newt Gingrich needs 1041 delegates or 70% of the remaining delegates. Because most of the remianing states assign delegates proportionally, the chances for Santorum and Gingrich to make up the required number of delegates is shrinking down to a very small chance. I'd say both of them have two chances, dogs chance and no chance at all.

And Gingrich has put all his eggs into these two baskets. If he doesn't win both states, he will unquestionably leave the race. But whether this actually benefits Rick Santorum or not is open for debate. Yes, the arguement has been that Newt Gingrich + Rick Santorums vote counts in several states would have taken those states away from Mitt Romney, but it does seem that it is almost too late for that to be a major factor anymore. Romney is the leader in the delegate count, the only count that really matters.

Oh and currently, there are 82 unassigned delegates, who will probably go to Mitt Romney anyway, or whoever has the most number of delegates at the end of this. I cannot see any of these currently unpledged delegates going any other way than to the candidate that will have the most delegates, and since I fully expect that to be Mitt Romney, that's where I think they will go.

Today, theres 50 delegates in Alabama, 40 delegates in Mississippi, plus 20 delegates in Hawaii and 9 delegates in American Samoa. That's 119 delegates out of the 1491 remaining. Unless either Santorum or Gingrich get more delegates than Romney, BOTH should exit the scene, stage right, on the double.