America Votes 2008: The Final Analysis

Well, it's been a long and eventful night, and yes, an historic one. I'd always hoped Obama would win, and always believed he would, but my cynical side kept rearing it's ugly head, saying the Republicans will find a way to steal it, yet again. Thankfully I was proved wrong.

So in the cols light of day in Washington DC, and across the world, we can look back on the night that came before, and reflect on just how it happened. It's a very long reflection, and it begins when the first polls closed.

0000 GMT / 1900 EST / 1600 PST.

Six states closed their polling stations at 7pm Eastern; Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Of those 6 states only Vermont had been a Democratic state, the others all went with the Republicans.

The first state to called in this election was KENTUCKY. The Bluegrass State is politically Red, for Republican, and this year was no exception, they went with John McCain, by a margin of 58.3% to 41.7% when the votes were finally counted. Kentucky is worth 8 votes in the US Electoral College system, so John McCain took 8 Electoral College votes.

Almost immediately following was VERMONT. Historically it has been a Democratic blue state, and once again, this year was no exception, with the projection being for Barack Obama, and with about 95% of precints reporting as I write this, Obama has secured around two thirds of the vote. Vermont is worth only 3 votes in the Electoral College so Obama took just 3 Electoral College votes.

SCOREBOARD at 0000 GMT:
John McCain: 8
Barack Obama: 3

The other four states at this time were to close to call.

0030 GMT / 1930 EST / 1630 PST

3 states closed their polls at 7.30pm Eastern. North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. None of the states were called at this time. This made a total of 7 states that were too close to call, therefore the scoreboard remained the same.

0053 GMT / 1953 EST / 1653 PST

SOUTH CAROLINA was projected to be another win for John McCain. As I write this now in review 99% of the precincts have reported and McCain has about a 9 percentage point lead over Obama. South Carolina is worth 8 Electoral College votes to John McCain.

SCOREBOARD at 0053 GMT
John McCain: 16
Barack Obama: 3

The remaining 6 states at this time are still too close to call, and the polls are about to close across a third of the country.

0100 GMT / 2000 EST / 1700 PST

16 states closed their polls at 8pm Eastern; Alabama, Connecticut, The District Of Columbia, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. It meant by this time half the states had closed their polling stations.

PENNSYLVANIA was the big news at this hour. It had been Democratic Blue for the last 4 elections, and it had stayed Democratic, being called for Barack Obama. With 99% of the precincts reporting as I write this, Obama has an 11% lead over McCain, despite having won the vote in only 17 counties, compared to 48 counties for McCain. Mercer County was incredibly tight with McCain beating Obama there by just 2 votes. But it was Barack Obama who claimed the 21 Electoral College votes that Pennsylvania has.

NEW HAMPSHIRE was then called for Barack Obama. It had stayed Democratic and had given Barack Obama another 4 Electoral College Votes.

It was then no surprise at all to find out that ILLINOIS, Barack Obama's home state, was called then for Obama, giving him another 21 Electoral College Votes.

THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA then was also called for Barack Obama, giving him 3 more Electoral College Votes.

The next state to be called was MASSACHUSETTS. Like the 4 states before it, it to was called for Barack Obama. This gave him another 12 Electoral College Votes.

Then DELAWARE was also called for Obama, giving him another 3 Electoral College Votes. When the votes were counted, Obama had 61% of the vote, and had the popular vote in 2 of Delaware's 3 counties. It was a pretty comprehensive victory.

The home state of Country Music, TENNESSEE, had voted Republican every election except in 1996. This year was not to be another exception, with the state being called for John McCain, giving him another 11 Electoral College Votes.

MARYLAND was called for Barack Obama, giving him another 10 Electoral College Votes.

CONNECTICUT was called for Barack Obama, adding another 7 Electoral College Votes to the total.
OKLAHOMA was called for John McCain, giving him another 7 Electoral College Votes.

A total of 13 states had been called leaving 12 too close to call at this stage.

SCOREBOARD at 0100 GMT
John McCain: 34
Barack Obama: 84

It's obvious that in this round of calls, the damage was really done. 8 states had been called for Barack Obama, only 2 for John McCain. However, it was the result in only two states that had at this time effectively sealed John McCain's fate already. Pennsylvania and New Hampshire were targets for John McCain if McCain had any realistic hopes of winning, he had to win in those states. He didn't.

0106 GMT / 2016 EST / 1716 PST

We barely had time to pause for breath before MAINE was called for Obama giving him another 4 Electoral College Votes.

Then NEW JERSEY was also called for Barack Obama giving him another 15 Electoral College Votes.

At this stage 10 states were still officially too close to call.

SCOREBOARD at 0106 GMT
John McCain: 34
Barack Obama: 103

This was already looking like an Obama victory. He had held on to two key battlegrounds, and was already moving ahead of John McCain.

0130 GMT / 2030 EST / 1730 PST

1 state closed their polls at 8.30pm Eastern and that was in Arkansas.

ALABAMA was called for John McCain, giving him another 9 Electoral College Votes.

ARKANSAS was called also for John McCain, adding another 6 Electoral College Votes to his total.

At this point in proceedings, 9 states are still too close to call.

SCOREBOARD at 0130 GMT
John McCain: 49
Barack Obama: 103

McCain may have made up some ground there, but the two states called for him were expected to be Republican. We have yet to see a state switch sides as it were, and when we do, we'll know for certain who is likely to win and lose.

0200 GMT / 2100 EST / 1800 PST

There are 15 states closing their polls. Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming. This brings the total number of states who have closed the polls to 41. Only 9 states are still voting at this stage.

First call this hour is MICHIGAN, called for Barack Obama, adding another 17 Electoral College Votes to his total.

Then came MINNESOTA, also called for Barack Obama. That's 10 more votes to his Electoral College total.

WISCONSIN is also called for Obama, 10 more Electoral College Votes.

NEW YORK unsurprisingly was called for Obama, adding another 31 Electoral College Votes. New York has one of the largest Electoral College Vote allocations available.

NORTH DAKOTA is called for John McCain. It's another state to his growing tally but a measley 3 Electoral College Votes, not enough to really begin to make up the gap with Barack Obama.

KANSAS is called for John McCain giving him 6 more Electoral College Votes.

WYOMING is called for John McCain, but like North Dakota, Wyoming only brings him 3 Electoral College Votes.

RHODE ISLAND is called for Barack Obama, that adds another 4 Electoral College Votes to his total.

16 states at this stage are too close to call.

SCOREBOARD at 0200 GMT
John McCain: 61
Barack Obama: 175

At this point, Obama now only needs 95 more Electoral College Votes to become President-Elect.

0205 GMT / 2105 EST / 1805 PST

Another slight pause to catch our breath before GEORGIA is called for John McCain, which gives him 15 more Electoral College Votes.

15 states, all still too close to call.

SCOREBOARD at 0205 GMT
John McCain: 76
Barack Obama: 175

15 Electoral College Votes is a good pickup for John McCain, but it is almost too little, too late. Remember, New York gave Obama 31 Electoral College Votes. Too much for the small single digit college votes that McCain has mostly picked up tonight. By contrast, Obama has picked up a significant number of double digit college votes.

Now, it's fully expected that McCain will pick up Texas, giving him another 34 college votes, but that can be countered if Obama captures California, which will give him 55 Electoral College Votes, the largest number of votes available in this electoral system.

Still at this point some of the key battleground states have yet to be called. Florida, Ohio and Indiana for example...

0224 GMT / 2124 EST / 1824 PST

OHIO is called for Barack Obama, the first state of the night to politically change hands, having previously been Republican. 20 Electoral College Votes get added to Obama's total.

14 states remain too close to call.

SCOREBOARD at 0224 GMT
John McCain: 76
Barack Obama: 195

Oh dear! A battleground state just changed hands. Obama needs just 75 Electoral College Votes to put him over the winning line of 270. McCain must now have realised that his chances have evaporated. Despite the fact that Barack Obama isn't over the winning line yet, the gulf that separates Obama and McCain must be obvious to everyone. It's not a matter of if, just when.

0230 GMT / 2130 EST / 1830 PST

WEST VIRGINIA is called for John McCain, but like rather too many states in this election, it gives him just 5 votes in the Electoral College, another single digit haul, rather than the double digit hauls that Obama has mostly taken.

LOUISIANA is also called for John McCain, giving him 9 more Electoral College Votes. Better, but still not enough.

12 states are still currently too close to call.

SCOREBOARD at 0230 GMT
John McCain: 90
Barack Obama: 195

Okay, so we've had one battleground state change hands. But there are still more to come, and some are considered rock solid Republican territory, like New Mexico...

0238 GMT / 2138 EST / 1838 PST

NEW MEXICO, a usually rock-solid Republican state, is called for Barack Obama! This adds 5 more Electoral College Votes to his total.

TEXAS, another rock-solid Republican state, and this stays Republican, giving John McCain 34 Electoral College Votes. Nice, but Obama still has California to come.

10 states are still too close to call.

SCOREBOARD at 0238 GMT
John McCain: 124
Barack Obama: 200

Surely now, despite the Texas votes, the loss of New Mexico, which wasn't even considered a battleground, has surely done it for John McCain. Can he avoid losing any more states to Barack Obama? Somehow, it doesn't seem likely. Florida still has yet to be called. Don't tell me that won't be called tonight? Still, Obama only needs 7 more Electoral College Votes. California and Florida between them could effectively end it.

0257 GMT / 2157 EST / 1857 PST

Just as we're counting down to the polls closing in 4 states, MISSISSIPPI is called for John McCain, giving him 6 more Electoral College Votes.

9 states are still too close to call.

SCOREBOARD at 0257 GMT
John McCain: 130
Barack Obama: 200

0300 GMT / 2200 EST / 1900 PST

4 states close their polls at this time. Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah. All are usually Republican, and if McCain has any hopes left, then he has to hold on to all these states. There may only be 20 Electoral College Votes available between them, but for symbolic reasons, McCain MUST hold them all. Any states taken by Obama would be more symbolically damaging to McCain than it would be in terms of lost Electoral College Votes.

IOWA is the first state to be called, regarded as a battleground in this election, it is called... for Barack Obama! He takes 7 Electoral College Votes from the state.

UTAH is called for John McCain, he gains another 5 Electoral College Votes.

SCOREBOARD at 0300 GMT
John McCain: 135
Barack Obama: 207

4 states that McCain needed to hold onto and he couldn't hold Iowa. Obama needs just 63 Electoral College votes to win.

0330 GMT / 2230 EST / 1930 PST

NEBRASKA calls for McCain, but only awards 3 out of the 5 available votes to him. Only Nebraska and Maine do not have a "winner takes all" policy when it comes to Electoral College Votes.

McCain: 138
Obama: 207

0341 GMT / 2241 EST /1941 PST

SOUTH DAKOTA is called for McCain. Another measley 3 Electoral College Votes. Not really enough.

McCain: 141
Obama: 207

0400 GMT / 2300 EST / 2000 PST

5 states close their polls at 11pm Eastern. California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon and Washington. With 55 Electoral College Votes for California, Obama should make it over the winning line.

CALIFORNIA was the first state to be called this hour, and it was called for Obama. No surprise here, 55 Electoral College Votes get added to his total.

McCain: 141
Obama: 262

Obama needs just 8 more Electoral College Votes.

WASHINGTON is the next state to be called, and this too, is called for Barack Obama, giving him another 11 Electoral College Votes

Barack Obama is to be the next President of the United States Of America.

McCain: 141
Obama: 273

Cue many scenes of jubilation across America, the concession speech from John McCain and the victory speech from President-Elect Barack Obama. By just before 1am Eastern, 6am GMT, Obama had 338 Electoral College Votes, whilst McCain had only 155.

Congratulations, Barack Obama. Now, the hard work begins.