Day 1 was the day the votes were cast. Day 2 was when the counting began. Now we're into Day 3 of this, and we do have the first preference counts from all 40 consituencies, so now we know what the official share of the first preference vote is, and it goes like this...
Fine Gael - 25.5% - 10.6% lower than in 2011
Fianna Fail - 24.3% - 6.9% higher than in 2011
Sinn Fein - 13.8% - 3.9 higher than in 2011
Independents - 13.0% - 0.4% higher than in 2011
Labour - 6.6% - 12.8% lower than in 2011
Independent Alliance - 4.2% - New party in this election.
Anti-Austerity Alliance - 3.9% - Wasn't in this current form in 2011.
Social Democrats - 3.0% - New party in this election.
Green Party - 2.7% - 0.9% higher than in 2011
Renua Ireland - 2.2% - New party in this election.
Others - 0.7% - 2.0% lower than in 2011
So what do these figures tell us? Well, first of all, it tells us the governing parties of Fine Gael and Labour took a spanking at these elections, both losing significant share of the first preference vote. Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein do look to be the big winners, both making significant gains on their 2011 position. But ultimately Fianna Fail must be disappointed. They must have felt they had a chance to overtake Fine Gael, as the tide seemed to slowly turn against the governing parties. But they didn't quite capitalise on it.
However it must be said, they did far better than the opinion polls suggested. In fact, in the run up, the opinion polls were way off.
| Date | Source/Link | Polling Agency | FG | Lab | FF | SF | AAA -PBP | RI | SD | GP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 February 2016 | General election | N/A | 25.5 | 6.6 | 24.3 | 13.8 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 17.9 |
| 26 February 2016 | RTÉ[p 1] | Behaviour & Attitudes | 24.8 | 7.1 | 21.1 | 16.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 16.6 |
| 26 February 2016 | The Irish Times[p 2] | Ipsos MRBI | 26.1 | 7.8 | 22.9 | 14.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 16.1 |
| 25 February 2016 | TheJournal[p 3] | DIT | 32 | 8 | 20 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 23 February 2016 | Paddy Power[p 4][p 5] | Red C | 30 | 7 | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16[nb 2] |
| 22 February 2016 | The Irish Times[p 6] | Ipsos MRBI | 28 | 6 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 18[nb 3] |
| 21 February 2016 | Sunday Independent[p 7][p 8] | Millward Brown | 27 | 6 | 23 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14[nb 4] |
| 21 February 2016 | The Sunday Business Post[p 9][p 10] | Red C | 30 | 8 | 18 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15[nb 5] |
| 21 February 2016 | The Sunday Times[p 11][p 12] | Behaviour & Attitudes | 30 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15[nb 6] |
This table came from Wikipedia, where I found all the polling data over the last 5 years, but I focused on the last week of the campaign. Fine Gael's support was overestimated, quite significantly. Sinn Fein's support was often over-estimated too. Fianna Fail was underestimated, as were the others in this list, the Independents and the parties not listed in the polling data, including the Independent Alliance.
You can understand how disappointed Fine Gael feel, especially if they trusted this data to be accurate. In some cases, the +/- 3.0% margin of error still left a gross over-estimation of support.
So, what does that mean in terms of seats? Well seats are not filled by first preference votes alone in this election, but a number of Fianna Fail candidates did win on First preference votes alone, getting over the quota line without supplementaries. Right now as I write this, 95 of the 158 have been filled, and the state of play is this.
Fine Gael - 28
Fianna Fail - 28
Sinn Fein - 13
Independents - 10
Labour - 4
Anti-Austerity Alliance - 4
Independent Alliance - 4
Social Democrats - 3
Green Party - 1
Renua Ireland - 0
Others - 0
Doing some quick percentage maths, that means that currently, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are on course to win 47 seats each. Not even 50 seats. I actually expect them to make the 50 seat level but just barely. I think a few more seats could go to the minor parties, Sinn Fein and Labour, and maybe a couple more Independents, but it's difficult to know exactly how many will go to which party.
What we do know is that it's squeaky bum time. Every seat declaration today will be watched with great interest as both Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin will be trying to work out who they can do deals with to secure a majority, and ultimately, whether they could work out a deal with each other to keep Sinn Fein out of power.
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